Vermont lottery Pick 4 Boxes(numbers in any order) Data

The Chance of Winning with a Vermont Pick 4 box (any order).

Since there are 715 possible outcomes, one may be tempted to conclude that the chance is 1 in 715. This is not exactly true since not all boxes have equal chances of winning; Pick 4 numbers with non-repeating digits have a better chance of winning than numbers with one digit repeated, two digits repeated, or one digit tripled. For example, the number 1234 has more chance of winning than the numbers 1223, 1122, and 1222. The reason is that 1234 covers 24 possible permutations (1234, 1243, 1423, 4123, etc.), while 1223 covers only twelve (1223, 1232, 1322, 3122, etc.), 1122 six (1122, 2211, 1221, 2112, 1212, 2121), and 1222 four (1222, 2122, 2212, 2221).

Consequently, we shall classify all the Pick 4 numbers into five categories, namely, Non-Repeating numbers, One-Repeated numbers, Dual-Doubles numbers (like 1122), One-Tripled numbers (like 1222), and quadruples. Very often, the first four categories are referred to as 24-way, 12-way, 6-way, 4-way boxes (or combos), respectively. Of the 10000 Pick 4 numbers, 5040 are non-repeating, 4320 one-repeated, 270 dual-doubles, 360 one-tripled, and 10 quadruples. This means that out of 1000 draws, we should theoretically expect about 504 non-repeating numbers (50.4%), 432 one-repeated (43.2%), 27 dual doubles (2.7%), 36 one-tripled (3.6%), and 1 quadruple (0.1%). Note that one thousand draws is about 2 years and 9 months, if drawings are held once a day; 1 year and 4½ months for bi-daily draws; and about 8 months if drawings are held 4 times a day. The chance of winning with a non-repeat box (or combo), such as the number 1234, is about 1 in 417, while for a one-repeat box it is about 1 in 833; for a dual double number it is 1 in 1667, and for a one-tripled number 1 in 2500. The chance of winning with a quadrupled number is the same as the chance of winning with any other straight number - that is, 1 in 1000.

Vermont Pick 4 Box Analysis Results and Summary by Category

There are 210 distinct non-repeating boxes, 360 one-repeated, 45 dual-doubles, and 90 one-tripled boxes. All the possible Vermont Pick 4 boxes are listed below by category together with the number of times drawn and the number of draws since last appearance (NDSLA). But, prior that we shall list some analysis results to show how the actual data of Vermont Pick 4 results are close to the theoretical expectations cited above.

Although we cannot comment on how close the actual data are to the theoretical data right at this moment (since all figures are updated after every draw), we were amazed to see a perfect harmony between the two at the time of writing of these pages.

See Vermont Pick 4 Boxes (Combos) Analysis for a more elaborate analysis of boxes.

Non-repeating Numbers (Total 210)ND = Number of times Drawn, NDSLA = Number of Draws Since Last Appearance

One-Repeated (Total 360)ND = Number of times Drawn, NDSLA = Number of Draws Since Last Appearance

Dual-Doubles (Total 45)ND = Number of times Drawn, NDSLA = Number of Draws Since Last Appearance

One-Tripled (Total 90)ND = Number of times Drawn, NDSLA = Number of Draws Since Last Appearance

Quadruples (Total 10)ND = Number of times Drawn, NDSLA = Number of Draws Since Last Appearance